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Podcast: Values, Land Resets & BC Policy Friction with Mark Goodman

Vancouver’s multifamily market is in a dramatic pricing reset – punitive demand-side policy, rate shifts, and a collapse in land values. One lesson stands out: when land speculation disappears, value returns to existing fundamentals.

In this episode of the Commercial Real Estate Podcast, recorded live at the Canadian Apartment Investment Conference 2026 and powered by First National, hosts Aaron Cameron and Adam Powadiuk welcome back heavy hitter Mark Goodman, principal of Goodman Commercial and publisher of The Goodman Report.

Mark breaks down why Metro Vancouver dollar volume fell 35% while transaction count rose 19% – a shift toward smaller deals. Price per door is down 26% year-over-year and 35–45% from peak. Speculative development sites once priced at $200 per buildable square foot have dropped more than 50%, back to existing building value. Highest and best use has flipped: assets once valued strictly for high-density redevelopment are now priced as cash-flowing apartments.

Sellers who chased the market down with 12-month-old comps missed the peak exit window. In a high-interest, high-cost development environment, existing cash flow now beats speculative future density. Five-year debt in the low-4% range against 5%+ cap rates is delivering real positive leverage. Institutional capital remains sidelined; second-generation family offices are buying the dip.

The conversation also covers Mark’s move into podcasting (inspired by New York CRE legend Bob Knakal), capital flight from B.C. toward pro-business markets like Calgary, and the legal and psychological uncertainty around Aboriginal title decisions. Provincial policy – rent controls, short-term rental bans, flipping taxes, RTA changes – continues to choke new supply and set up a future rental shortgage.

The land boom has paused. Existing multifamily is once again the primary store of real estate value in Metro Vancouver. The opportunity is not waiting for 2017 peak valuations to return. It is understanding fundamental value, positive leverage, and long-term entry points – and having the discipline to buy during the trough.

What You Will Learn

  • Volume vs. deals: Dollar volume down 35%, transaction count up 19% – smaller tickets, not a dead market.
  • The wholesale reset: Price per unit off 26% YoY and 35–45% from peak.
  • Land premiums gone: $200/sq. ft. buildable sites cut by more than half, back to in-place building value.
  • Highest and best use flipped: Speculative density priced as cash-flowing apartments.
  • Missed exits: Outdated comps kept sellers chasing a market that had already moved.
  • Positive leverage: Low-4% five-year debt vs. 5%+ caps.
  • Who is buying: Family offices in; institutions on the sideline.
  • Policy and title risk: Why capital is leaving B.C. and why new supply is stalling.
  • The real question: Not whether Vancouver remains valuable – whether you will buy the trough.

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